SOPHIA XT
Research · model architecture and training plan · generation 4 · 16 September 2026

Sophia-XE4

A from-scratch language model that grows its own experts.

SOPHIA XT ships systems that take payment today. A live grounded-search system, a commercial real estate platform priced in three tiers, and a field-service diagnostics product over a multi-million-part corpus all run now, and the search product is the largest consumer of the memory layer described on this page. Sophia-XE4 is the model that makes work like that cheap to keep current.

XE4 is our own weights, trained from zero. It is a block-diffusion language model whose compositional machinery is inside the network from the first pretraining token rather than bolted onto somebody else's checkpoint. The router sits at four layers. Fold memory cells sit at three more. An anchor head predicts the positions that must survive generation intact. All of it trains together.

The result is a model that adds a capability by growing a new expert rather than by being retrained, and that holds its memory footprint flat no matter how much it knows.

+1.3%
cost of 512 experts
What a query costs to run, against 337% more capacity.
Computed
146 MB
RAM at 1M vectors
Flat from 100,000. Retrieval results byte-identical.
Measured
0.819
routing at 48 experts
No learned gate. 39 times the random floor.
Measured
0.17 ms
to route a query
Against a 76.4 ms embed. No trained parameters.
Measured
2.5×
block decode
Reported by the published decoding method we adopt.
Cited
1.67×
out of distribution
Our training objective. CI [1.51, 1.85]. DOI.
Published
How to read this page

Built and measured, against proposed and costed

This page carries two kinds of thing and they are not the same kind of thing. One is work that has run, on one consumer GPU, with the method that produced each number stated beside it. The other is a training plan with prices on it. Every figure, panel and mixed table row on this page is tagged with which it is, and the tags mean the same thing everywhere they appear.

Exists today Measured
  • A 1.3B masked-diffusion base trained from scratch and released under Apache-2.0, cross-entropy 3.78 to 2.26 over five epochs.
  • A 360M compositional model serving live traffic on CPU hardware, warm-started from an open base. That is the previous generation, not XE4.
  • A training objective published with a DOI, four open repositories, and two manuscripts with submission packages built.
  • Every component measurement in section 09, all of it from one consumer GPU.
What the funding buys Proposed
  • The XE4 backbone itself. It has not been pretrained. No XE4 weights exist, at any size.
  • The routing fix that lifts free-form top-1 from 0.47 toward 0.85. Measurement since this page was written says the fix is the query representation rather than a re-ranking step.
  • The growth policy that decides when to split, merge and germinate an expert. The recursion it runs on is tested. The policy is not built.
  • The head-to-head test of attribute-formed samples against ordinary text at matched compute.
Measured Published Computed Cited Proposed Open Retired

Measured is ours and it ran. Published is ours, ran, and is externally citable. Computed is arithmetic from a measured input, shown so it can be checked. Cited is published work by other people, adopted as published. Proposed has not been built. Open is a gap we have measured and not closed. Retired is a mechanism we killed, with the evidence that killed it.

01 · Thesis

Composition belongs in the weights, not on top of them

Every compositional system shipping today sits on top of a frozen model from someone else, with tuned weights and a retrieval layer stapled around it. That works, and we built one. It serves live traffic. But the model underneath was never trained to be composed, so the composition fights it. Routing has to infer structure the network was never asked to represent. Memory has to be injected through a prompt the network was never trained to read as memory.

XE4 is the version where that structure is native. It is a block-diffusion language model trained from zero on our own architecture, with four components that do not exist in any other pretrained model.

  • A sparse expert router at layers 3, 7, 11 and 15, trained jointly with the backbone rather than fitted afterwards.
  • Fold memory cells at layers 5, 10 and 15. Coordinate-addressed memory that is part of the language model rather than a database it queries.
  • An anchor head, a separate classifier predicting which positions carry identifiers, codes and rare terms that must survive generation exactly.
  • A confidence-hysteresis sampler, which commits a token above 0.85, carries it forward below 0.30, and iterates the rest.

Block diffusion is the substrate that makes those four possible. It generates a block at a time rather than a token at a time, some positions can be held fixed while others denoise, and decoding parallelises. An autoregressive model cannot hold an anchor fixed and refine around it. This one is built to.

Everything on this page was measured on this

1
consumer GPU
36
experiments
42
logged runs
692
metrics
733
telemetry samples
184.9 W
peak draw
7.0 GB
peak VRAM
500
bootstrap resamples
02 · The model

What actually gets trained

XE4 is specified to the layer. The backbone is conventional and deliberately so, because the novelty budget is spent on the compositional layers rather than on re-litigating transformer basics.

Borrowed and ours
Thirteen components, each with its origin
ComponentSpecificationOriginStatus
BackboneGrouped-query attention · SwiGLU · RMSNorm · rotary embeddingsStandard, citedCited
ObjectiveBlock diffusion, absorbing mask, data-driven noise schedulePublished method, citedCited
Block size8 to 16 positionsCited. Our earlier 128 was too coarseCited
DecodingParallel block decode with KV cache · 2.5× over autoregressivePublished method, citedCited
Instruction tuningActive-block masking, prefix frozen, suffix hiddenPublished method, citedCited
Tokenizer49,152 BPE, reused for ecosystem compatibilityStandardCited
Expert routerSparse top-k at layers 3, 7, 11 and 15, with load and entropy controlsOursProposed
Fold memory cellsCoordinate-addressed, layers 5, 10 and 15OursProposed
Anchor headSeparate classifier over anchor positionsOursProposed
Anchor-token objectivePrefix never masked, answer always noised · 1.67× out of distributionOurs, published with a DOIPublished
Capsule latticePer-query expert activation by cosine retrieval, no gateOursMeasured
Lattice-aware trainingThe lattice used during training, not only at inferenceOurs, no prior artProposed
Confidence samplerCommit at 0.85, carry at 0.30, hysteresis betweenOursProposed
Why the split is stated this plainly

Six components come from published, citable work and we use them as published. Seven are ours, one of them already peer-citable with a DOI. A reviewer or a technical diligence team can check every line of that table. Nothing in XE4 depends on an unverified original claim about transformer internals, because the originality is concentrated where we have evidence for it.

Figure 01 Where the compositional machinery sits Proposed
Where the compositional machinery sits inside Sophia-XE4THE COMPOSITIONAL MACHINERY SITS INSIDE THE MODELALL OF IT CARRIES GRADIENT FROM PRETRAINING STEP 0TRANSFORMER STACKL1L2L3L4L5L6L7L8L9L10L11L12L13L14L15L16queryBACKBONE · GQA · SwiGLU · RMSNorm · RoPE · citedFOLD MEMORY3 cells, in the networkcell at layer 5cell at layer 10cell at layer 15read in as extra K/V slots146 MB flat at 1M vectorsmeasured, figure 05EXPERT ROUTERsparse top-k, four tapstap L3tap L7tap L11tap L15room to growexperts, grown not fixed0.17 ms to routeno gate to retrainmeasured against a 76.4 ms embedBLOCK DIFFUSIONa block at a time2.5× over autoregressive, citedANCHOR HEADmarks the positions that must survive intactCONFIDENCE SAMPLERcommit above 0.85, carry below 0.30
The sixteen-layer backbone with the router tapping layers 3, 7, 11 and 15, fold memory cells at layers 5, 10 and 15, and the anchor head and sampler on the output path. Violet is the router, cyan the fold memory, amber the anchor head, mint the sampler. One query descends the stack on a loop. None of these are inference-time attachments: they carry gradient from step 0 of pretraining, which is the whole difference between this and a set of parts assembled around a frozen checkpoint. The architecture is specified and not yet pretrained. The two numbers on the figure, 0.17 ms to route and 146 MB resident, are measured on the components and appear again in section 09.

Parameter count is the wrong measure, and we are not going to use it

Asking how many parameters XE4 has is like asking how many pages a library has. The backbone is fixed. Experts accumulate over the system's life and are not present at training time. Memory is on disk and unbounded. A single number cannot describe that, and the number the industry uses, total parameters as a proxy for capability, describes a dense autoregressive model and nothing else.

XE4 is specified by three numbers instead of one, plus the only one that governs cost.

Specification
Backbone, experts, memory, and what a query costs
MeasureWhat it describesHow it movesStatus
BackboneThe trained core, chosen for inference economicsFixed at pretraining. Never updated againProposed
Expert countHow many domains the system has learnedGrows continuously, in production, without retrainingMeasured
Memory scaleHow much the system knows and can citeUnbounded, on disk, at flat resident costMeasured
Active parametersWhat actually runs on a given query, which is what you pay forEffectively constant, whatever the other three doComputed
Figure 02 Capacity against cost as the expert set grows Computed
Capacity rises 337 percent while cost per query rises 1.3 percentPARAMETERS IN BILLIONS AS THE EXPERT SET GROWS · 1.7B BACKBONE · TOP-2 ROUTING02468total learnedwhat it knowsactive per query1.72, flatwhat you pay for032128512experts attachedAT 0 EXPERTScapacity +0%cost per query +0.0%arithmetic from the measured 22.4 MB expert
Arithmetic from the measured 22.4 MB average expert, at half precision, with top-2 routing on a 1.7B backbone. Attaching 512 experts raises total learned parameters from 1.70 to 7.43 billion while active parameters per query move from 1.700 to 1.722, which is a 1.3% increase in what a query costs to run against 337% more capacity. A dense model reaches that capacity only by making every query more expensive. This is the entire economic argument, and it is arithmetic rather than a projection, which is why the numbers are in the table below rather than only in the picture.
The same figure as numbers
Experts attached against what a query runs
Experts attachedTotal learned, billionsActive per query, billionsCapacity against backboneCost per query
01.701.700+0%+0.0%
322.061.722+21%+1.3%
1283.131.722+84%+1.3%
5127.431.722+337%+1.3%
Each expert is 22.4 MB on disk, about 11.2 million parameters at half precision. Two of them run on any given query, so the active count stops moving after the second expert is attached.

So the model line is not named by size. It is written as backbone, experts, memory. A production system might read 1.7B backbone, 512 experts, 100M records, and the number that governs its serving cost is 1.72B whatever the other two say. Where a comparison against a dense model is unavoidable, we compare on active parameters and on cost per query, because those are the quantities a buyer is billed for.

03 · Mechanism

How a question actually gets answered

The component list says what is in the model. This says what happens when you ask it something, because that is where the difference lives.

Figure 03 One forward pass, five stages Proposed
How a question gets answered, in five stagesONE FORWARD PASS, FIVE STAGES1 · EMBEDearly layers turn thequestion into arepresentationbackbone2 · ROUTE, L3cosine lookup over thecapsule lattice, thetop-k experts apply0.17 ms · no weights3 · INJECT, L5memory addressed bycoordinate, injected asextra K/V slotsno context spent4 · RE-ROUTE, L7 L11 L15the expert set can changemid-forward as themeaning sharpensrouting at depth5 · GENERATEa block at a time, anchoredpositions held fixed whilethe rest denoisecommit 0.85 · carry 0.30stage 1 of 5
Stages 2 and 4 are the compositional router. Stage 3 is memory entering through attention rather than through the prompt. Stage 5 is the diffusion decode that makes holding a position fixed possible at all. The figure advances on its own and the controls hand it to you. The latencies quoted on it are measured on the components; the pass itself describes the architecture as specified, which has not yet been pretrained.
What comes out alongside the answer
  • Which experts fired, and with what margin over the runner-up.
  • Which memory records were injected, each with byte-offset provenance back to its source.
  • Which positions were anchored and therefore reproduced exactly rather than generated.
  • Every one of those is a row in a hash-chained log, so an answer can be audited after the fact.

The three things that are genuinely different

Memory arrives through attention, not through the prompt. Retrieval-augmented systems paste retrieved text into the context window, which means retrieved knowledge competes with the conversation for the same scarce budget and the model reads it as ordinary input. XE4's fold cells address the store by coordinate at three depths and inject what they find as auxiliary key and value slots. The model attends over retrieved knowledge without spending context on it, and because the cells were trained alongside the backbone, the network learned what to do with that channel rather than having it introduced at inference.

Routing happens at depth, and more than once. A mixture-of-experts gate routes tokens between feed-forward blocks inside a single monolithic model. XE4 routes the whole query across separately trained, separately shippable experts, and it re-evaluates at layers 7, 11 and 15. A question whose subject only becomes clear halfway through the stack gets the right expert by layer 11 even if layer 3 guessed wrong. That is why top-3 accuracy of 0.983 matters so much: the right expert is nearly always in contention, and depth gives the model three more chances to land on it.

Positions can be held fixed while the rest of the answer is refined. An autoregressive model commits tokens left to right and cannot revise. Block diffusion generates a block at a time over roughly a dozen denoising steps, so a part number, a case citation, a dosage or an account identifier can be locked in place while the language around it is rewritten. Anchor preservation measured exactly 1.0 on our diffusion backend. The anchor head was trained to predict which positions deserve locking, which is why the model knows a part number when it sees one.

Figure 04 Block diffusion against token-at-a-time decoding Cited
Block diffusion against token-at-a-time decodingTHE SAME TWENTY POSITIONS, TWO DECODERS, ONE CLOCKAUTOREGRESSIVEone position per step, left to right, never revised????????????????????step 0 of 20an identifier is generated, not preservedBLOCK DIFFUSIONa block at a time, anchored positions held fixed???locklock?????????lock?????pass 0 of 8anchor preservation measured at 1.02.5× fewer decode steps, reported by the published method we adopt
Two decoders on one clock over the same twenty positions. The left panel emits one position per step, left to right, and can never revise what it emitted, so it needs twenty steps. The right panel resolves a block at a time in eight denoising passes, with the anchored positions held fixed from the first pass while everything around them denoises. Twenty against eight is the 2.5x the published parallel block-decoding method reports, and that number is theirs rather than a measurement of our own stack: the figure illustrates the mechanism rather than timing it. Anchor preservation of 1.0 is ours and measured, on a constrained decode over the diffusion backend.
The compounding effect

These three are not independent features. Memory through attention is what gives the router something worth routing over. Routing at depth is what lets a grown expert set stay useful as it gets large. Anchored decoding is what makes retrieved facts survive generation intact instead of being paraphrased into error. Remove any one and the other two lose most of their value, which is why the architecture had to be trained together rather than assembled.

04 · Difference

Against everything adjacent

We compete on operating-model economics, not leaderboard position. The table below is built on the axes that decide whether a deployed model can be maintained, because that is where the category is contestable.

Comparison
How each approach adds a capability
ApproachHow capability is addedCost per domainCan the customer add one?
Monolithic fine-tuningA new model replaces the old one$10K to $1M+, weeksNo. Bound to the provider's release cadence
Retrieval augmentationDocuments stuffed into the context windowLow compute, high data engineeringDocuments yes, behaviour no. That lives in the base
Mixture-of-expertsExperts co-trained inside one checkpointCo-training cost, count fixed at design timeNo. The gate must be retrained
Per-customer tuning on a shared frozen baseOne tuned weight set per customer, served togetherLow per customerPartly. The routing infrastructure is provider-locked
Sophia-XE4A new expert is grown and attached. The backbone is never touchedAbout $0.50 and about a minuteYes. The router has no learned parameters to retrain

The row that decides it is the last one. Every other approach needs the provider in the loop when capability changes, because something learned has to be updated: a checkpoint, a gate, a routing model. XE4's router is closed-form, so a new expert is additive by construction. That turns model maintenance from a release event into a service cadence, and it is the difference between shipping a fix in an afternoon and shipping one next quarter.

The honest row

Our own first attempt belongs in that table. We framed the compositional vision as retrieval of documents and it did not produce a deployable architecture, because routing to documents is not routing to capability. The runtime piece survived as an open-source library whose suite collects 259 tests, and the lesson produced XE4. Investors should know we have already been wrong about this once, at our own expense, and corrected.

Prior art

None of the individual components here is new, and a page that implied otherwise would not survive ten minutes with someone who reads this literature. Each one has a line of published work behind it. What the table records is what that work established and where XE4 leaves it, so a reviewer can go to the source and check the second column against the first.

Literature
What each component stands on, and where this departs from it
Line of workWhat it establishedWhere XE4 departs
Regularised continual learning (Kirkpatrick et al., 2017, and successors)Forgetting can be slowed by penalising changes to weights an earlier task relied onIt slows the damage rather than removing it. Shared weights are still written to, so the guarantee is statistical, not structural
Column-per-task and parameter-isolation networks (Rusu et al., 2016; Mallya and Lazebnik, 2018)Giving new capability its own parameters avoids forgetting outright. This is the closest structural ancestor of what we doTask identity has to be supplied at inference, and capacity grows without a selection rule that stays cheap as the count rises
Adapters and low-rank updates (Houlsby et al., 2019; Hu et al., 2021)A small trainable module against a frozen backbone is enough to carry a domain. This is where our expert format comes from and we claim nothing about inventing itThey are fitted after pretraining onto a backbone that never expected them, and choosing between many of them is left to the serving layer
Sparsely gated mixture-of-experts (Shazeer et al., 2017; Fedus et al., 2021)Routing can live inside the weights and be trained jointly with themThe gate is learned and the expert count is fixed at design time, so adding one is a retraining event rather than an attachment
Expert expansion and sparse upcycling (Komatsuzaki et al., 2023, and lifelong-pretraining work from 2023 onward)Expert count can be grown after the initial run instead of being fixedGrowth is still a training event with a learned gate refitted around it, and it is driven by a schedule rather than by what the model has actually accumulated
Memory-augmented and retrieval transformers (Graves et al., 2016; Borgeaud et al., 2021; Wu et al., 2022)A model can consult an external store at inference rather than holding everything in its weightsThe store holds text or activations, not capability, and in the usual constructions both index size and recall cost grow with what is held
Retrieval-augmented generation (Lewis et al., 2020)Documents at inference time fix knowledge staleness cheaply and wellIt does not change behaviour, only what the model has in front of it. This is the approach our own first attempt was built on, and the honest row above says how that went
Task arithmetic and model merging (Ilharco et al., 2022)Capabilities can be combined in weight space after the factMerging is an offline, lossy operation on whole models. There is no per-token selection and no way to remove one capability later without redoing it

The claim we make about novelty is therefore narrow, and we would rather state it narrowly than have it corrected for us. We have not identified another system demonstrating this complete combination under the constraints described here: a closed-form router with no learned parameters, a backbone that is never updated after pretraining, experts grown from what the memory has actually accumulated rather than on a schedule, and all of it carrying gradient together from the first pretraining token rather than being fitted on afterwards. That is a statement about a search, not about the literature itself. The search was ours, it was done in 2026, and it was not exhaustive. A reader who knows of work that already does this should write to us, and we will put it in this table.

05 · Trajectory

What this is a path toward

Every language model shipping today is frozen at its training cutoff. It cannot learn from what it does. Every agent framework built on top is scaffolding around a static mind: memory bolted on as a database, tools bolted on as function calls, and underneath, weights that will never change in response to anything the system experiences. That is the gap between a very capable function and something that gets better by running.

Closing it needs three things, and XE4 is built around exactly those three.

Continual learning
Three requirements, and where XE4 stands on each
RequirementWhy it blocks continual learningWhere XE4 standsStatus
Memory that persists without degrading or costing moreIf recall cost grows with what you know, the system has a ceiling on how much it can have learned146 MB resident at a million records, flat, results identicalMeasured
New capability that cannot damage old capabilityCatastrophic forgetting is why nobody trains a model continuously. Each update risks everything already thereStructural. The backbone is never updated and experts are separate artifacts, so damage is not mitigated, it is impossibleProposed
A mechanism that decides what to learn and when to allocate capacityWithout it, a human is always in the loop choosing what the system should becomeThe growth loop. Built on tested recursion. The policy is what stage 3 fundsProposed

Put together, they describe a model that accumulates capability across its operational lifetime instead of being fixed at a cutoff date. It reads something it has never seen, finds no expert covers it, accumulates enough of that ground to be worth a specialist, trains one in about a minute, attaches it, and is measurably better at that thing than it was that morning, with every step of that recorded in an audit log and nothing it already knew put at risk.

That would be a real milestone, and we have not identified another system demonstrating this complete combination under the constraints described here. That sentence is deliberately narrow. Continual learning, parameter isolation, mixture-of-experts growth and memory-augmented transformers are all active literatures with real results in them, and every component here stands on one of them. The prior-art table above says which, and where this departs. What we have not found is the whole combination in one system, and that is a claim about our search rather than about the literature.

It is also not general intelligence, and we will not tell a room that it is. XE4 does not address reasoning depth, world modelling, or goal-directedness. Those are separate problems and a routing architecture does not solve them. What it addresses is the substrate, the part that makes continual, auditable, non-destructive learning mechanically possible at all. Every system that eventually gets to general capability will need something that does this job, and we would rather be measured on that narrow claim than on a bigger one we cannot defend.

Why the substrate is the right bet

Reasoning is where the field's capital is already concentrated, and it improves with scale we cannot outspend. Continual learning does not improve with scale, because a small model and a frontier model are equally frozen after training. It is an architectural problem, which means a small team with the right design can get there first, and the result compounds rather than being overtaken by the next larger run.

06 · Memory

An unbounded store at constant cost

The hard limit on every deployed language model is that memory costs grow with use. Stuff the history back into the prompt and tokens grow every turn until you hit the wall. Load a vector index into RAM and the machine grows with the corpus. Both are the same failure: state that scales with what you know.

XE4 breaks that coupling inside the network. Fold memory cells pull compact representations at three layers, cache them, and re-inject them into the next layer's attention as auxiliary key and value slots, so the growing tail of the KV cache is replaced by a fixed-size content-addressable buffer. The retrieval substrate underneath is already proven RAM-bounded, and it is the cleanest result we own.

146 MB
resident at 1M vectors
Flat from 100,000. Retrieved top-5 sets byte-identical at every size.
Measured
16×
less RAM at 1M
Against loading the same index into RAM, and the gap widens.
Measured
43×
faster writes
Flat as the store grows rather than degrading with it.
Measured
29×
storage compression
At recall@1 of 0.988.
Measured
Figure 05 Resident memory against store size Measured
Resident memory stays flat at 146 MB as the store grows tenfoldRESIDENT MEMORY IN MB vs STORE SIZE · MEASURED · IDENTICAL RESULTS BOTH WAYS2400180012006000260 MB1,184 MB2,338 MBload the whole indexgrows with the corpusfold memory145 to 146 MBflat, disk only100,000500,0001,000,00025.6 MB on disk128 MB on disk256 MB on diskvectors stored16×less RAM at 1Mand rising
Streaming retrieval over a disk-backed store holds resident memory at 146 MB while the store grows tenfold. Loading the index into RAM climbs to 2,338 MB on the same data. Measured at 100,000, 500,000 and 1,000,000 vectors, with the retrieved top-5 sets byte-identical across both methods at every size, so the saving costs nothing in accuracy. Writes are 43 times faster and stay flat as the store grows rather than degrading with it, and storage compresses 29 times at recall@1 of 0.988. The machine stops caring how much the model knows.

Above the network, the same layer retrieves compressed grounded evidence rather than concatenating passages. Measured over 47 grounded probes at matched depth: 1.82 times fewer context tokens at equal grounding, and a retrieval hit becomes a correct answer 90.9% of the time against 63.2% for passage stuffing.

07 · Routing

Routing that plateaus where the standard method collapses

A compositional model is only as good as its ability to pick the right expert, and the received wisdom is that a fixed lookup cannot keep up as experts multiply, so you need a learned gate. We tested that across 13 expert counts from 4 to 53, on 14 methods, with 500-resample confidence intervals on every point.

Figure 06 Top-1 routing accuracy across expert counts Measured
Routing plateaus at 0.819 where the classical method collapses to 0.49TOP-1 ROUTING ACCURACY · 13 EXPERT COUNTS · 500-RESAMPLE 95% CI · LABELLED PROBES1.000.800.600.400.200.00random floor 1.9%our router, plateausclassical supervised routing, collapses+30pts481216202428323640444853number of expertsAT 48 EXPERTStop-10.819top-20.941top-30.983
Our router plateaus near 0.80 across the whole range and sits at 0.819 with 48 experts, CI [0.774, 0.868], roughly 39 times the random floor. Classical supervised discriminant routing degrades monotonically to 0.49 over the same range, and the gap widens with scale. The band is the 95% bootstrap interval over 500 resamples. The probe set is six probes per expert, so the point at 48 experts is 236 correct out of 288, and the series runs to 53 experts where it falls to 0.786. The strip at the bottom is the top-k signal: on these probes the correct expert is in the top three 98.3% of the time. An earlier version of this caption read that as meaning the separation already exists and only the ranking is missing. That inference is wrong, and the note below says why. These are labelled probes.

There is no gate to retrain, which is what makes a growth loop affordable, because adding an expert costs one extraction pass and nothing else. The accuracy ceiling also belongs to the method rather than to the backbone: we swept five frozen bases across a 9 times size range and three model families, and routing sat inside a 1.7-point band. Scale does not buy routing. That result cancelled a funded larger-backbone run, and it is why the budget in section 15 spends where it does.

The gap this page will not paper over

The 0.819 is measured on labelled probes. In free-form deployment, where the query is a user's sentence rather than a labelled example, top-1 sits at 0.47 to 0.50 on the same expert set, and across small hierarchies it is worse: 100% at two experts, then 23.3%, 36.7%, 36.7% and 46.7% at three to six. Those small-hierarchy figures are thirtieths, so the last of them is 14 items correct out of 30, and the drop from 53.3% that we previously described as more data making things worse is 16 correct against 14. Two items. None of the free-form figures carries a confidence interval or a stated sample size the way the labelled series does, and until they do, the size of this gap is a point estimate rather than a measurement. Mean-centring fixes the geometry, moving pairwise cosine from 0.77 to -0.35 and widening margins three to four times, and it does not fix accuracy, which points at a query and answer representation mismatch rather than at the routing maths.

Two corrections to what this page used to claim, both found by putting the question through our own six-lane router on 17 September 2026 and published in the round log at /live. First, re-ranking does not rescue this. On a separate scale-sweep harness we rewrote 265 real queries across five seeds to strip the words that appear in their own taxonomy path, leaving only how a person would phrase it. Labelled top-1 on that harness runs 0.981, 0.952 and 0.927 at 7, 16 and 48 units. Stripped, it falls to 0.664, 0.577 and 0.543, and top-5 reaches only 0.830, 0.713 and 0.683. The correct expert is absent from the top five on roughly a third of free-form queries, so no re-ranker over these candidates reaches the gate. The ceiling is how a unit is represented, not the tiebreak. That harness is not the capsule router that produced 0.819, so read it as the mechanism rather than as the same number.

Second, the gate is harder than it looks. Stage 1 asks for 0.85 top-1 free-form at six experts. The labelled series above peaks at 0.847, reads 0.833 at eight experts and 0.667 at four, and has no measurement at six at all. So the gate asks free-form routing to beat the best labelled number we have ever recorded, not to approach it. We are leaving the gate where it is rather than quietly lowering it, because it was written before the work and moving it afterwards is how a pre-registered gate stops meaning anything. But nobody should read 0.85 as a modest target, and an investor should weigh this page on that number as much as on 0.819.

08 · Growth

The expert topology is a function of what the model has remembered

A mixture-of-experts model fixes its expert count at training time and routes tokens among them with a learned gate. XE4's expert count is a runtime variable and the router is closed-form, so the graph can change shape while the model is serving.

The structural property this needs is already built and tested. An expert node may itself contain a child graph, with the same routing mathematics at every level. In the stacked test, a two-level graph routed correctly at the coarse level and again at the fine level, matching the flat graph's score on identical probes. Recursion costs nothing in accuracy. What XE4 adds is the policy that decides when to recurse, and that policy is designed rather than running.

01 · Mitosis Proposed
Mitosis, splitting an overloaded expertone branch deepens, nothing else is touched
Split an overloaded expert

Route share climbs while in-scope error rises, or the region passes a density threshold.

The region is partitioned over its attribute signature, each child gets its own expert weights, and the parent becomes an interior routing node. One branch deepens and nothing else is touched.

02 · Fusion Proposed
Fusion, merging two experts that collidedcollisionrouting mass recovered
Merge two that collided

Two sibling capsules drift together past a threshold while their held-out scores sit inside noise of each other.

Merging them recovers routing mass that a collision otherwise strands. The graph is allowed to shrink, which is what keeps growth from degrading into sprawl.

03 · Germination Proposed
Germination, growing a new expert from uncovered grounduncovered ground22.4 MB, about a minute
Grow a leaf from new ground

Knowledge entering memory that falls outside every expert's coverage radius accumulates untouched.

At quorum it germinates a new leaf: a fresh 22.4 MB expert, about a minute of GPU time, backbone untouched.

Figure 07. Three operations on the expert graph, driven by telemetry the router already emits at 0.17 ms per query. Every split, merge and germination is written to a hash-chained audit log, so the model's capability history stays reconstructable, which is what makes a self-modifying model auditable enough to deploy where it matters. The recursion these run on is measured. The operations themselves are the policy stage 3 funds.

Why this is a different object from mixture-of-experts

Experts inside a mixture model are trained jointly and cannot be shipped, audited or revoked one at a time. XE4 experts are separate 22.4 MB artifacts, each with its own scope, exclusion list and validation set, so one can be sold to a customer, shown to a regulator, or pulled without touching the rest. A mixture gate is learned parameters that must be retrained whenever the expert set changes, which is exactly the cost that makes continuous growth impossible. Ours is closed-form and costs 0.17 ms, so growth is affordable by construction.

09 · Proof

What is measured, and what it cost to find out

Measured
Eleven results, and what produced each one
ResultMeasurementMethod
Memory is RAM-bounded146 MB resident at 1M vectors, identical resultsStreaming against load-all at 100K, 500K and 1M vectors
Routing holds as experts multiply0.819 top-1, 0.983 top-3 at 48 experts13 expert counts, 14 methods, 500-resample bootstrap CI, labelled probes
Routing is effectively free0.17 ms mean against a 76.4 ms embedInstrumented inference
Recursion is losslessA stacked graph ties the flat graph, both levels correctTwo-level coarse and fine routing test
Our training objective works1.67× out-of-distribution advantage, CI [1.51, 1.85], P = 1.000Published with a DOI, 48 held-out queries across four domains
The effect localises to value and output projections0.416 against 0.337 at half the trainable parametersFour causal ablation probes
Our base model trains cleanCross-entropy 3.78 to 2.26 over five epochs1.3B masked-diffusion base, released Apache-2.0
Compositional memory beats passage stuffing1.82× fewer tokens, 90.9% against 63.2% correct on a retrieval hit47 grounded probes at matched depth
Deterministic fact-lockingAnchor preservation 1.0Constrained decode on the diffusion backend
An expert is small and cheap22.4 MB average on disk, about a minute of GPU time, about $0.50Packaged specialists on the lab rig
Edge serving economicsAbout $0.19 per million tokens360M on 4 vCPUs, no GPU, at an estimated 40 W
The $0.19 per million tokens assumes a 40 W draw that is estimated rather than metered. At twice that estimate the figure moves to $0.38, and the order-of-magnitude claim against hosted inference still holds. The 1.67x out-of-distribution advantage is largest in the low-shot regime and narrows with more training steps, which is why it is one phase of a curriculum rather than the whole objective.
Reproduce these numbers

Four rows of that table carry a public artifact and a command sequence on the reproduction page, with the expected output and the tolerance for each. The routing row does not, and that page says so rather than leaving you to find out.

The from-scratch risk is already retired

Our first block-diffusion pretraining runs collapsed into modal-token output. We diagnosed it to two specific recipe faults: a noise schedule that drove a quarter of batches past 85% masking from a cold start, and a warm-start checkpoint that had only ever been validated in causal mode while the objective trains bidirectionally. Neither was architectural, and both were fixed at small scale. The hardest failure mode in from-scratch diffusion training is behind us, found on a $2,000 GPU rather than on a $200,000 run.

Capital discipline: what we killed, and what killing it saved

Four of these were pre-registered, so the decision rule was committed in writing before the run and the outcome could not be argued with afterwards. This habit is why the budget in section 15 is a fraction of what a from-scratch model line normally costs.

Retired
Five mechanisms, and the evidence that killed each
KilledEvidenceWhat it saved
Buying a bigger backbone for routing1.7-point band across a 9× size range, three model familiesA funded larger-backbone run, cancelled before the spend
A learned routing gateMutual information exactly 0.0 bits, 30 prompts collapsed to one nodeGate retraining on every expert ever added
Supervised discriminant routingDegrades to 0.49, and the gap widens with expert countMaintenance cost that grows with the product
Entropy-driven routingHeld-out perplexity 113.21 against an 11.20 baselineAn architecture branch, retired in days
A learned coordinate channelRandom against hashed coordinates: byte-identical loss and generationAn entire gradient-bearing subsystem, never built

Open, and this is what the money buys

The five questions below are unresolved. Each has a gate written before the work starts, and each gate can stop the program. Listing them is not modesty. A reader who checks this page against the sources should find the same list.

Open
Five questions, with the gate that settles each
QuestionWhere it standsGate
Does free-form routing reach the labelled ceiling?Labelled probes reach 0.819 at 48 experts, at six probes per expert, so 236 of 288. Free-form deployment sits at 0.47 to 0.50 on the same expert set, with no interval and no published sample size, which makes it the least evidenced number on this page and the one the first funded gate rests on. Mean-centring fixes the geometry, pairwise cosine 0.77 to -0.35 and margins three to four times wider, and does not fix accuracy. The diagnosis is a query and answer representation mismatch, not routing maths. A separate harness shows the correct unit missing from the top five on about a third of free-form queries, so re-ranking the existing candidates cannot close thisStage 1 clears 0.85 top-1 free-form at six experts. Stated plainly because it is easy to misread: the labelled series peaks at 0.847 and has no point at six experts, so this asks free-form to beat the best labelled number on the page. The gap it closes is 32 to 35 points against the 48-expert labelled figure, not 30. An earlier version of this gate also offered a softer alternative, closing half the gap, which lands near 0.65 and is twenty points below the headline bar. One gate, one bar
Does routing survive small hierarchies?It currently does not. Free-form accuracy runs 100% at two experts, then 23.3%, 36.7%, 36.7% and 46.7% at three to six. Those are thirtieths: 30 probes, so 46.7% is 14 correct. Going from 237 examples to 4,361 moved the six-expert case from 16 correct to 14. We previously reported that as more data making routing worse. Two items out of thirty is not a finding and we are not going to keep presenting it as one until it has an interval. The 100% at two experts sits against a 50% chance floor with no sample size publishedHierarchical routing beats flat cosine jointly on accuracy, mutual information and end task at equal compute
Does attribute sample formation beat buying more compute?Untested. The corpus is built: 53 loci, a 115-definition property vocabulary, and validation confirming the ordering is structural rather than chronologicalAt least 5 points of held-out compositional accuracy over text formation, CI excluding zero, and at least the gain the same compute buys elsewhere
Can a binder learn the attribute structure rather than be given it?Given the structure, an object-centric network reaches 1.00 out of distribution. Made to learn it, slot attention is unstable at 0.54 in distribution with no out-of-distribution advantageA learned binder reaches in-distribution parity and beats a matched transformer out of distribution, CI excluding zero
Does the growth loop converge rather than sprawl?Untested at scale. Recursion is built and a two-level graph matched the flat graph exactly. The policy that decides when to split, merge and germinate is designed and not yet runningA grown graph beats a hand-built one of matched size across three seeds, and coverage rises while cost per query stays flat
10 · Data

What the model trains on

Three data tracks, each serving a different part of the architecture. The pretraining corpus is open and standard. We are not making a data-moat claim, and pretending otherwise would not survive diligence. The moat is in the second and third tracks, which nobody else builds because nobody else has the architecture that consumes them.

Corpora
Three tracks
TrackSource and scaleWhat it trainsStatus
Pretraining corpusOpen filtered web, about 50B then about 200B tokens across the two backbone runs, plus curated subsetsThe backbone, the diffusion objective, the anchor headProposed
Attribute-formed corpusA typed knowledge pipeline: statement, four-level breadcrumb, typed relations, provenanceFold memory cells and the routing representationOpen
Per-expert corpora50 to 150 examples each, routed by the lattice so an expert only sees what would reach itIndividual experts, at 100 to 300 steps apieceMeasured

The second track is the unusual one

Ordinary pretraining teaches a model the statistics of word sequences. The attribute track teaches it the statistics of property adjacency. Each sample opens with a class, then walks its typed properties in an order determined by structural relatedness rather than by how the text happened to be written. The model learns which properties imply which other properties, which is the representation the router and the fold cells both need.

A working corpus exists: real records, a closed property vocabulary of 115 definitions rather than open subword tokens, and validation confirming the ordering is genuinely structural and not chronological order in disguise. Stage 2 scales it and tests it head to head against the same facts written as ordinary prose at matched compute. That comparison is the cheapest decisive experiment in the program, and two of our strongest confirmed results are already effects of how the sample was built rather than of how much compute was bought.

Per-expert data is the commercial asset

An expert needs 50 to 150 examples. That is small enough that a customer's own documents, tickets, manuals or case files are sufficient, and small enough that a vertical can be covered in an afternoon. Every expert trained for a customer stays theirs. The compounding asset is not a giant proprietary corpus. It is the pipeline that turns any customer's messy domain material into a routed expert for about fifty cents.

11 · Benchmarks

What we will report, and when

We do not currently publish standard benchmark scores, because the models trained to date were research substrates at 360M and 1.3B and a score there would tell a reader nothing useful. Rather than leave that silence, here is the commitment.

Commitment
What each stage reports
StageWhat gets reportedCompared against
XE4-alpha, the validation backbonePerplexity, router entropy and load, per-component ablationsAn autoregressive model of equal active parameters on identical data
XE4-1, the production backboneStandard reasoning and knowledge suites, decode throughput, cost per million tokensOpen models of equal active parameter count
XE4 at fleet scaleDomain coverage as the expert set grows, at fixed active parametersDense models several times larger, on cost per query

Two things we will report that nobody currently measures, because the standard suites were built for static models and cannot see what XE4 is for. Capability retention: after adding twenty experts, how much of the original score survives, a number that should be identical to where it started since the backbone is never touched, and any deviation is a finding. Cost of acquisition: dollars and wall-clock to take the model from failing a domain to passing it, which is the number an enterprise buyer actually cares about and which has no entry on any leaderboard.

The gates in the plan are stricter than any public benchmark, because they are pre-registered and each one can stop the program. A benchmark score is a claim. A pre-registered gate is a commitment made before the result was known.

12 · Market

Who buys this, and what they pay for

The buyer is not someone shopping for a better chatbot. It is an operator who needs a model to know their domain, keep knowing it as it changes, run where their data already is, and be explainable when something goes wrong. Frontier APIs lose on at least two of those four, every time.

Segments
Four buyers
SegmentWhat they are buyingWhy XE4 and not a hosted API
Field service and technical diagnosticsA model that knows a specific equipment catalogue and updates as new models shipNew equipment means a new expert in an afternoon, not a fine-tune cycle
Regulated professional workVerbatim citation of codes, statutes and identifiers, with provenanceAnchored decoding reproduces an identifier exactly. A hosted API paraphrases it
Edge and on-premise deploymentA model that runs on hardware they already own, with data that never leavesRuns on a CPU box at roughly $0.19 per million tokens
Platform and agent buildersA model with persistent memory their product does not have to buildMemory is in the model, not a database bolted beside it

XE4 does not arrive without a business around it

Most research-stage model companies have a paper and a plan. This one sits inside a shipped portfolio that already takes payment, which matters for two reasons. The verticals the model will specialise into are ones we already serve, and the company does not depend on the model shipping in order to survive the year.

Shipped
What is live, and how it relates to the model
ProductStateRelationship to XE4Status
Commercial real estate platformLive, priced in three tiers, first brokerage in procurementA vertical with document-heavy domain knowledge, a natural expertMeasured
Field-service diagnosticsLive, payments active, multi-million-part corpusWhere the expert economics were first proven end to endMeasured
Live grounded searchWorking system, monetisation primitives already typedThe largest consumer of memory at scaleMeasured
White-label service bundleDelivery pattern built twice, pricedThe repeatable route to per-customer expertsMeasured
Franchise and ERP platformsComplete, awaiting a first production customerDomain corpora ready when the expert pipeline landsOpen

Eleven systems in the portfolio are sellable today. The independently assessed replacement cost of the shipped estate is $1.1M to $2.2M, which is what someone would spend to have what already exists, ignoring the four years it took. That is the floor under this raise, before any value is assigned to the published research, the released model, or the live customer bases.

How XE4 is sold

Three motions, in the order they become available. Experts as product: a customer buys a model that already knows their vertical, priced against what a fine-tune would have cost them. The pipeline as a service: they bring documents, we return a routed expert, repeatedly, on a service cadence rather than a release cadence. The model itself: licensed for on-premise and edge deployment where nothing may leave the building. The first two open the moment routing clears its production threshold at six experts. The third arrives with the production backbone.

The honest read on revenue: the portfolio takes payment but is not yet at scale, and getting there is a selling problem rather than an engineering one. The assessment that produced the figures above is blunt about the consequence. Going from nothing to half a million in recurring revenue would roughly triple the company's valuation, and no technology built in the same period would do that. XE4 is funded on its own merits, not on the promise that revenue arrives first.

13 · Moat

What is defensible

Not the backbone, which is deliberately conventional and anyone can build one. Four things are hard to copy, in increasing order of durability.

Defensible
Four assets
AssetWhat it isWhy it is hard to copyStatus
Published priorityThe training objective is published with a DOI. Two more manuscripts have submission packages builtPriority dates are permanent, and the routing-at-scale characterisation is ours to have published firstPublished
Sealed expert containersExperts ship as encrypted, key-bound artifacts, usable by a licensed runtime and not extractable from diskIt is what makes an expert marketplace commercially possible. Without it a specialist is a file anyone can copyProposed
The negative resultsFive falsified mechanisms, four of them pre-registered, each with the evidence that killed itA competitor has to spend the same time and money discovering the same dead ends. We already paid for that mapMeasured
The growth loopA model whose expert topology changes at runtime under memory pressureIt needs a closed-form router, in-network memory and cheap experts at the same time. An architecture missing one cannot run itProposed

The fourth is the real one, and it is a systems moat rather than a patent moat. Growth is only affordable because routing costs 0.17 milliseconds with no parameters to retrain, because an expert costs about fifty cents, and because memory does not grow in RAM. A competitor with a learned gate cannot add an expert without a retraining pass. One with prompt-based retrieval pays context for every fact. One with co-trained experts cannot change the count at all. Each of those is a reasonable design choice that happens to foreclose the growth loop, and undoing it means rebuilding from the objective up.

What is not defensible, stated plainly: the backbone, the tokenizer, the pretraining data and block diffusion itself are all public. We use them as published and cite them. Concentrating the originality where we have evidence is a deliberate choice, because it makes the claims checkable, and checkable claims are what a diligence process can actually confirm.

14 · Who we are

SOPHIA XT is building this, and has shipped a model before

Thomas Garren is the founder and principal architect of SOPHIA XT LLC, founded 2024. The company is founder-funded with no outside investors and no instruments outstanding. Every result on this page was produced by a one-person research operation on a single consumer GPU, run with pre-registration, hardware telemetry and a logged experiment harness, which is the relevant signal about how the money would be spent.

The raise funds four to six people around that: a pretraining engineer who has taken a model past a billion parameters, a data engineer for the corpus pipeline, an evaluation engineer who owns the gates, and applied engineers for the vertical experts. Hiring is staged against the plan rather than front-loaded. The decision tranche adds nobody, and the full team is only needed once the production backbone is in training.

This is not a first attempt at training a model. The line already includes a 1.3B diffusion base released under Apache-2.0 with a clean five-epoch loss curve, a 360M compositional model serving live traffic on CPU hardware today, a training objective published with a DOI, four open-source repositories, and two manuscripts with built submission packages.

Track record
What already exists
AssetFormState
1.3B diffusion base modelOur weights, trained from scratch, Apache-2.0Released
360M compositional modelWarm-started from an open base, live service on CPUServing
Anchor-token training objectivePaper with a DOI and a project pagePublished
Memory record formatOpen specification and packageReleased
Constrained decoding runtimeLibrary and server, 259-test suite at commit 01e5eedReleased
Memory package for any language modelOpen source, pip-installableReleased
Agent harnessOpen sourceReleased
Routing-at-scale manuscriptFull paper, submission package builtReady to post
Recursive-graph manuscriptFull paper, submission package builtReady to post
Architecture specification16 components, each with an acceptance testComplete
15 · The plan

Staged by what each stage establishes, and costed

Stages are named by what they settle rather than by a model size, because size is the industry's proxy metric and it is the wrong one here. Research stages are interleaved so the cheap decisive work always runs before the expensive work it would change. Hours are A100-equivalents and include a block-diffusion cost multiplier over autoregressive training. Dollars assume $2.00 per GPU-hour. Nothing in this table has been run.

0

Integrate fold memory into the serving path

Proposed

Land the per-layer key and value injection on the proven RAM-bounded store, wire validity and decay gating, and instrument the telemetry the growth loop reads. No new science, and it runs on the existing rig.

GATE · KV footprint flat as turn count grows, with no loss of multi-turn recall.
~300
existing rig
1

Fix the free-form query representation

Proposed

This stage used to be described as lifting top-1 to a top-3 ceiling, on the grounds that the correct expert is in the top three 98.3% of the time. That holds on labelled probes and does not survive free-form queries: on a stripped-query harness the correct unit is missing from the top five about a third of the time, so there is no ceiling to lift toward and re-ranking cannot get there. The work is the representation, not the tiebreak. Build attribute-signature capsules and train the routing representation contrastively. Still the highest value per GPU-hour in the program, for a different reason than we first gave.

GATE · Top-1 free-form routing clears 0.85 at six experts. Note that this is above every labelled top-1 on the routing chart, which peaks at 0.847 and has no six-expert point, so it is a hard gate rather than a formality. Left where it was written.
800
about $1,600
2

Settle the data thesis before buying compute

Proposed

Two of our strongest results are effects of how the training sample was built rather than of how much was bought. Isolate it: the same facts as ordinary text against class-first attribute sequences, matched compute, four ablations, three seeds. The corpus and tokenizer are already built.

GATE · Attribute formation beats text formation by 5 points or more on held-out composition, and beats what the same compute buys elsewhere.
2,000
about $4,000
α

XE4-alpha, the validation backbone, from scratch

Proposed

The first full pretrain with every compositional component active from step 0: router at four layers, fold memory at three, anchor head, confidence sampler, lattice-aware training. This is the run that shows the architecture is self-supporting without a warm start. About 50B tokens.

GATE · Coherent generation, no modal collapse, healthy router entropy, and every compositional component carrying gradient. Ablate each one, and each must earn its place.
1,500
about $3,000
3

Close the growth loop

Proposed

Turn on mitosis, fusion and germination against a fixed expert set at matched cost per query. This is where XE4 stops being a composition of known parts.

GATE · A grown graph beats a hand-built one of matched size on routing accuracy and end-task score, across three seeds or more.
3,000
about $6,000
1

XE4-1, the production backbone, from scratch

Proposed

The backbone the product ships on, sized for inference economics rather than for capability, because capability arrives through experts. Includes instruction tuning with active-block masking, the first grown expert set, and a rerun allowance. About 200B tokens.

GATE · Beats open models of equal active parameter count on domain tasks, at materially lower cost per query. Ships as a product, not only a result.
12,000
about $24,000
F

XE4 at fleet scale: 512 experts, 100M records, growth running continuously

Proposed

This is the frontier stage and it is not another pretrain. The backbone does not change. The system scales by growing its expert set and its memory while active parameters hold at 1.72 billion. Training 512 experts costs under ten GPU-hours in total. The budget here is evaluation at scale, the memory pipeline, and running the growth loop long enough to show it converges rather than sprawls.

GATE · Domain coverage keeps rising while cost per query stays flat, and capability retention on the original evaluation is unchanged after 512 attachments.
4,000
about $8,000
Σ

Full program, 18 to 24 months

Compute totals roughly 28,300 A100-equivalent GPU-hours, about $57,000, including a 20% contingency. That number is small on purpose. Past the backbone, this architecture buys capability with engineering rather than with GPUs, and roughly 97% of the raise is people, data and evaluation.

28,300
about $57K compute
Quarter map Proposed
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q5
Q6
Q7
Q8
Stages 0 to 2 · no new headcount
XE4-alpha and the growth loop · first two hires
XE4-1 pretrain, instruction tune, ship
Expert fleet and memory scale-out
Fleet-scale evaluation and release
16 · The ask

Three routes, and the first one is not dilutive

Compute is the only thing standing between this architecture and a trained model, and there is a route to clearing it that does not cost equity. NSF SBIR Phase I awards up to $305,000, non-dilutive, on a dedicated AI track, for exactly this: technical feasibility work too early for venture capital and too applied for academia. The next full-proposal deadline is 4 November 2026, with a project pitch and an invitation required first.

Our profile is unusually strong there, because SBIR reviewers are academics and they reward precisely what venture capital discounts: a published preprint with a DOI, an openly released model anyone can download, pre-registered experiments with decision rules committed before the run, negative controls, and a documented record of retiring our own hypotheses on the evidence. Most applicants manufacture that credibility for the application. We have four years of it, timestamped and public. That award alone funds the decision tranche and the validation backbone outright.

Alongside it, compute-credit programmes at the major clouds and the GPU-native providers run from $5,000 to $100,000 each and take an afternoon to apply for. Compute is the binding constraint on every research question in this document, and credits are the one route where effort substitutes for capital.

Route one: grant funded, prove the model
$305K + credits
19,600 GPU-hours · about $39K compute · 12 months
Ends with XE4-1, a from-scratch model, shipped.

An SBIR Phase I award plus compute credits covers stages 0 through the validation backbone outright, with no equity given up, and carries most of the way to the production pretrain.

The deliverable is not a paper. It is a deployable compositional model with our own weights, a grown expert set, and a memory layer that does not scale in RAM.

Proposed
Route two: pre-seed, take it to fleet scale
$1M to $2M
28,300 GPU-hours · about $57K compute · 18 to 24 months
Adds the expert fleet, memory at scale, and continuous growth.

Everything in route one, plus 512 experts, a hundred million memory records, the growth loop running in production, a team of five to six, and the evaluation suite the category needs because no existing benchmark measures what this model is for.

Independently assessed at $4M to $8M pre-money against 2026 pre-seed comparables, where the AI median runs $3M to $8M. Unusual for the stage: live products taking payment, a published result with a DOI, a released model, and a measured infrastructure stack.

Note what this does not buy: a bigger model. The backbone stays where inference economics put it, and capability comes from what is attached to it.

Proposed
Before either, the decision tranche

Stages 0 through 2 cost about 3,100 GPU-hours, roughly $6,000 of compute, three months, and no new headcount. They settle the two questions the whole program rests on: whether the routing fix lands, and whether sample formation beats buying more compute. We have run this play before. A few hundred GPU-hours of testing cancelled a funded larger-backbone run last quarter, and that discipline is why this program costs two million rather than forty.

What the money is buying

A model, and deliberately not a bigger one. The architecture is specified to the layer, the hardest from-scratch failure mode is diagnosed and fixed, the memory layer is measured, the routing is measured to 48 experts, the training objective is published, the recursion is tested, and a smaller model from the same line serves live traffic today at roughly a fifth of a cent per million tokens.

The reason this is cheap is the reason it is interesting. Everyone else buys capability with parameters, which is why their costs rise with every domain they cover and why a frontier run is a nine-figure commitment. We buy capability with experts at about fifty cents each, attached to a backbone we never retrain, over memory that does not grow in RAM. One to two million dollars is not a scaled-down version of somebody else's plan. It is what this architecture costs.

The sequencing matters as much as the number. A grant and a stack of compute credits get the architecture to a trained, validated model without touching the cap table. Equity is then priced against a working model rather than a design document, which is a materially better trade for everyone in the room. The next SBIR deadline is 4 November 2026, which makes the decision tranche the immediate work rather than the eventual work.